Daniel Gold, [4/29/2022 1:00 PM]

Scenario: What happens next. 

Baked in. Covid. 

Not baked in. Inflation consequences. Ukraine War. Lingering covid problems in China. Unresolved issues with Swine flu China. Us dollar shortages. Food costs. 

The world's largest wheat producer invaded the worlds 5th largest wheat producer. Eliminating market access. Cost of bread goes through the roof. 

Russia is Also worlds second largest producer of potash. Cost of fertilizer goes through the roof. 

Elimination of market access of Russian oil and gas. Cost of fuel goes through the roof. More importantly the production of diesel is dependent on natural gas which is used to make conventional diesel. Cost of logistics goes through the roof. 

China. Covid rampant and ineffective covid vaccine causes further logistical delays for consumer goods. Swine flu means food shortages in China. Phosphate based fertilizer a requirement for Rice production pulled from world market. 

Covid has caused a shortage of US dollars in poor countries which means they can't buy foreign goods for import. Covid caused a shortage because inflows of foreign currency due to economic decline, foreign visitors, logistical issues, lack of travel. 

Huge increases in fertilizer costs means producers may choose to go without which means lower yields. Cost of crops goes through roof. 

Most of the middle east is dependent on staple foods like wheat and Rice.

Outcomes. 

So far riots in Sri Lanka. Riots in Peru. Protests in Spain. Morocco. 

Every middle eastern country is dependent for subsistence on wheat and rice. Shortages and costs will cause significant instability. Instability in the middle east means a spike in petroleum costs. 

Shortages of fertilizers means some countries may choose to hoard their fertilizers instead of exporting. 

Shortages of dollars means people can't buy goods on world markets. 

Political instability worldwide. Rich countries not immune. Significant political upheaval. 

Massive cost increases for everything. 

Large sell off in markets to fund cost of living increases. 

Decoupling of resource exports from global trade. Hoarding of domestic resources. American ban on petroleum exports. 

Large sell off in crypto. 

Potential for additional military conflicts.

Daniel Gold, [4/29/2022 1:00 PM]

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